ITHACA, N.Y. — Frankly, with temperatures as mild and dewpoints as low as they’ve been the past few days, it’s been pretty darn pleasant. (Funny, because for years I’ve joked the Ithaca Festival had invoked some kind of curse to always bring bad weather upon itself.) We’ll see some warm, humid, and stormy summer-like conditions as we head into the middle of the week, but cooler if still unsettled conditions will arrive for next weekend. No major weather-related disruptions are expected this week.
A rather quiet afternoon and evening is expected for the rest of today. Overnight lows in the mid- to upper-50s in most places. Chances for rain showers and isolated storms mainly west of I-81 this afternoon through the evening. #NYwx #PAwx pic.twitter.com/aqsV9M7ut4
— NWS Binghamton (@NWSBinghamton) June 2, 2024See AlsoSome of these you'll know, some you won't. 13 celebrities with homes in MassachusettsCan a 1970s Cape Cod hotel with a slick makeover balance Instagram-ready style with substance? - The Boston GlobeDave Monti: Freshwater fishing is free this weekend in Massachusetts10 books to add to your reading list in June
Your Weekly Weather
High pressure has been in control of the region’s weather the past few days, but an upper-level low is pressing in from the Western Great Lakes and pushing the high to the east. There’s not a whole lot of moisture available for the low to tap into, so although some showers are likely later this afternoon and evening, amounts should be light, <0.1″ for most communities. Skies will be mostly cloudy through the rest of the day, with highs in the upper 70s, and with the showers and thickening clouds, that should fall into the low 70s for the evening hours. Tonight will see the showers end before midnight as the low moves southeast, with partial clearing towards morning and lows in the mid to upper 50s.
With the high centered off the Atlantic Coast, its clockwise circulation will bring ample amounts of warm, moist air into Upstate New York. Monday will be a mostly sunny day with highs in the low 80s, and a touch humid with dewpoints in the low 60s. Monday night will see partly cloudy skies and lows in the upper 50s.
An eastward-moving storm system over will pass well to the north of the region through Canada on Tuesday. The primary impact locally will be to enhance the southerly flow of the high, and provide just enough atmospheric instability for a few widely scattered pop-up showers and thunderstorms. It will be a rather humid day with highs in the mid 80s and partly to mostly cloudy skies. Tuesday night will see a growing chance for showers and thunderstorms after midnight, as a stronger low over the Upper Midwest begins to pinwheel its cold frontal boundary towards Tompkins County. It will be mostly cloudy in-between storm cells, with mild, rather humid overnight lows in the mid 60s.
With showers and storms in the area throughout the day as the cold front nears, Wednesday will be a warm, unsettled and muggy day, with highs in the low 80s. Wednesday night will be damp and muggy, with on-off showers and thunderstorms, mostly cloudy skies, and lows in the mid to upper 60s.
Models show the front moving through Thursday, but the core of the low slides southeast behind it, into Upstate New York, so the atmosphere will remain unstable. It’ll be another warm, muggy and stormy day, with partly cloudy skies interspersed with rounds of showers and storms. Highs will be in the low 80s. Thursday night will see partly cloudy skies, some scattered showers, and lows in the upper 50s.
That low lingers through Friday before being tugged eastward towards Cape Cod by a secondary coastal component Friday night. On the backside of the counterclockwise-spinning low, northerly winds will result in a cooler day, if still unsettled, with partly cloudy skies mixed with cellular rain showers, and highs in the mid 70s. Friday night will see a few showers with mostly cloudy skies and lows in the mid 50s.
Current medium-range forecasts show the now large, lumbering low stalling out over the Northeast, cutoff from the flow of the jet stream. Since it’s primarily an upper-level low, its large core will create a cold pool of air aloft that will mix down to surface levels. It won’t be a washout, but it will be a marginally unstable environment, and it will be a little cooler than is typical for early June in Ithaca. Expect partly cloudy skies Saturday, with showers and a few thunderstorms likely, and highs in the mid 70s. Sunday will be a touch cooler, with showers and highs in the low 70s. Lows will be in the mid 50s for both days.
Extended Outlook
Looking into the middle of the month, the cutoff low over the Northeast isn’t expected to move out quickly or easily next week. Its impact on the large-scale pattern will result in cold air drawn from the higher latitudes producing unseasonable cool temperatures across much of the Midwest and Great Lakes, though that continental air will be on the dry side. However, the instability of being directly under the low’s core will produce slightly wetter-than-normal conditions for the Northeast, as well as those cooler-than-normal temperatures. Elsewhere, warm air gets pushed poleward around the low in the Western U.S., and warm air will also be bottled up over the Deep South, creating some risks for a strong early-season heat wave in those areas.
